Top 45 Fantasy Starting Pitchers for 2010: Take Two

As I continue to fine-tune my pitching projections, there is a major shakeup in the rankings.  Names like Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez and Javier Vazquez saw a major change in their rankings from the first time around. 

Let’s take a look at how things currently stand, but again keep in mind that these still have plenty of room to change as draft day grows closer.

1. Tim Lincecum - San Francisco Giants
2. Roy Halladay - Philadelphia Phillies
3. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals
4. Felix Hernandez - Seattle Mariners
5. CC Sabathia - New York Yankees
6. Johan Santana - New York Mets
7. Chris Carpenter - St. Louis Cardinals
8. Dan Haren - Arizona Diamondbacks
9. Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers
10. Adam Wainwright - St. Louis Cardinals
11. Yovani Gallardo - Milwaukee Brewers
12. Ubaldo Jimenez - Colorado Rockies
13. Jon Lester - Boston Red Sox
14. Cliff Lee - Seattle Mariners
15. Josh Johnson - Florida Marlins
16. Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
17. Cole Hamels - Philadelphia Phillies
18. Tommy Hanson - Atlanta Braves
19. Matt Cain - San Francisco Giants
20. John Lackey - Boston Red Sox
21. Chad Billingsley - Los Angeles Dodgers
22. Josh Beckett - Boston Red Sox
23. James Shields - Tampa Bay Rays
24. Jake Peavy - Chicago White Sox
25. Matt Garza - Tampa Bay Rays
26. Wandy Rodriguez - Houston Astros
27. Scott Baker - Minnesota Twins
28. Jered Weaver - Los Angeles Angels
29. Javier Vazquez - New York Yankees
30. A.J. Burnett - New York Yankees
31. Jair Jurrjens - Atlanta Braves
32. Brandon Webb - Arizona Diamondbacks
33. Ricky Nolasco - Florida Marlins
34. John Danks - Chicago White Sox
35. Carlos Zambrano - Chicago Cubs
36. Roy Oswalt - Houston Astros
37. Ted Lilly - Chicago Cubs
38. Max Scherzer - Detroit Tigers
39. Randy Wolf - Milwaukee Brewers
40. Gavin Floyd - Chicago White Sox
41. Edwin Jackson - Arizona Diamondbacks
42. Clay Buchholz - Boston Red Sox
43. Mark Buehrle - Chicago White Sox
44. David Price - Tampa Bay Rays
45. Scott Kazmir - Los Angeles Angels

Thoughts:

• Wainwright is a solid pitcher and deserves to be in the Top 10 after his big 2009 campaign, but he’s not a pitcher that I’m expecting to have on any of my teams in 2010.  He benefited from a strand rate of over 80 percent last season and a big fall could be coming in the ERA department.  I just don’t value him enough to justify drafting him where you need to in order to get him.
• Ubaldo Jimenez has done enough to make me a believer.  His peripheral numbers are just too good to ignore.  An increasing strikeout rate.  A new sense of control.  A groundball rate of better than 52 percent in each of the past two seasons.  He could be in store for a huge 2010.
• My projections for Clayton Kershaw really surprised me (which we’ll get to in time), but the numbers make him look like one of the elite in the league.  It’s all about the control, which in turn will allow him to work deeper into games.  If he can get the walks down, he easily could be a Top 10 pitcher by the end of 2010.
• Who would you rather have, Tommy Hanson or Matt Cain?  That’s going to be a future article for me, but the numbers are extremely close on my projections.  It really comes down to Hanson’s strikeout rate vs. Cain’s continued luck, no?
• What can we expect from Josh Beckett in 2010?  Who knows, and that’s really the problem.  He has the stuff to be one of the elite, but he has these down years mixed in that really make you wonder.
• If Jake Peavy is healthy he could be significantly better than a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 starter.  It’s a risk, but one that’s worth taking.
• Wandy Rodriguez continues to be a dominant starter at home, while struggling mightily on the road.  It’s hard to imagine him repeating the 2.08 home ERA he posted in 2009, so a regression is in order.  We’ll go further into this in the near future.
• Javier Vazquez’ value takes a huge hit with the trade to New York, as it is now more likely for his ERA to be near 4.00 than it is for him to come close to his 2.87 from 2009.  He gave up 14 HR to left-handed hitters and walks into a ballpark that’s conducive for lefties to go yard.  Doesn’t seem like a good match, does it?
• If Brandon Webb is healthy, he’s an absolute steal where he’s going to be available on draft day.  Obviously, after throwing just four innings due to a shoulder injury, he’s a huge gamble.  Still, he’s one worth taking.
• Max Scherzer has a ton of potential, we all know that, but now being in the AL is going to make it more difficult for him to flourish.  He has a problem going deep into games already, so facing deeper lineups certainly isn’t going to help matters.  Still, the strikeouts are alluring, aren’t they?

Previous Early Rankings:

• Catchers
• First Baseman
• Second Baseman
• Third Baseman
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

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