Adrian Beltre isn't going to hit 48 homers like he did in 2004. He isn't going to drive in 120 runs, either. But he would give the Twins 20-30 homers and stellar defense at third base.
There are four sure-fire stars on the free-agent market–Matt Holliday , Jason Bay , John Lackey , and Chone Figgins , but there are countless others that, though classified as B-list free-agents, are capable of putting up solid numbers.
Having predicted where the top-five free-agents will land , here now are my predicted destinations for free-agents six through ten.
Pettitte has been a tremendously dependable pitcher over the course of his career, and especially in the playoffs. He can be counted on to accumulate 12-15 wins during the regular season, 3-4 more during the playoffs, and an ERA in the low 4’s.
There is no reason for him to leave the World Series champion New York Yankees, and they have no reason not to retain him. He, who won all three playoff-series clinchers, will stay with New York, barring an unexpected retirement.
Alex Gonzalez , who was the shortstop for the Boston Red Sox last season, signed a one-year deal with Scutaro’s old team, the Toronto Blue Jays , so it’s only fitting that the 34-year-old signs with the Red Sox.
There aren’t a lot of pleasing shortstops on the market (it’s Scutaro, a 36-year old and intriguing Miguel Tejada , and offensively-challenged Adam Everett , and that’s about it), and not many that are available via trade (unless Boston trades Florida the farm for Hanley Ramirez ), but though it appears Scutaro is the only option for Boston, they want him and he wants the Red Sox .
He picked a good time to have a career year. This past season, he hit .282 with 12 home-runs and 60 rbi’s out of the leadoff spot, and posted a tremendous .379 on-base percentage.
He is aging, and would probably want a three-year deal from Boston, but he’s a very good defender (he only made 10 errors), doesn’t strikeout very often (he had only 75 strikeouts compared to 90 walks in 144 games), and would be a good fit with Boston.
If he is signed by the Red Sox, he will be their sixth shortstop in as many years.
The fiery closer has been one of the best in the business over the past three seasons.
He saved over 40 games in both 2007 and 2008, and though he appeared in just 52 games in 2009 for the Houston Astros, the 31-year old compiled 25 saves in 29 chances, allowed only 15 runs in 54 innings, and had his best ERA, 2.33, since his rookie year with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Not many teams are looking for a closer. The lack of demand for a saves machine is either because they can’t afford to spend money, or because they have their own options in-house or on the farm.
One team in particular needs to add bullpen stability, and that would be the National League’s representative in the World Series, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Their closer, Brad Lidge , had a nightmarish regular season. In four more innings than Valverde, he had a 7.21 ERA, allowed 51 runs, 11 home-runs, walked 34, and blew 11 saves.
He pitched well in the postseason before being shelled in his lone World Series appearance, but the Phillies should certainly be on the lookout for a replacement.
They could move Lidge to the eighth inning, thereby taking the pressure off to increase his effectiveness, put Ryan Madson in as the setup man’s setup man, and Valverde in as closer.
The 6′4″, 250 pound Dominican has been very dependable and will come relatively cheap. Unless they want uncertainty throughout their ‘pen, the Phillies should pounce on Valverde.
In 2004, the third-baseman’s final season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Beltre hit 48 homers–25 more than in 2003–drove in 121–41 more than in 2003–and batted .338–94 points higher than in 2003.
Since this unbelievable season, Beltre hasn’t clubbed more than 26 homers or driven in more than 99 RBI in a season, disappointing throughout his five seasons with the Seattle Mariners, but he’s only 30 years old and is still an accomplished hitter.
On top of his offensive production, he is a tremendously gifted defensive third-baseman, which makes him that much more appealing on the free-agent market.
The Red Sox have been linked to him, but he would fit more with the Minnesota Twins, a team in dire need of offense and particularly a third baseman. He would not only give the Twins one of the best defensive infields in the majors, but also 20-30 home-run power. Throughout his career in Seattle, his on-base percentage was awful, hovering around .300, yet in the 6th or 7th hole in Minnesota’s lineup, he would be a significant upgrade over the Brian Buscher /Brendan Harris /Joe Crede trio.
10. Rich Harden
If there is a high-risk, high-reward player on the market, it’s the 27-year old Harden. The gifted right-handed starting pitcher has spent the bulk of his seven-year career with the Oakland Athletics. Over the course of his tenure in the league, he has compiled 50 wins to just 29 losses, and a 3.39 ERA. Despite these outstanding numbers, he has made only 127 starts, or an average of 18 per season.
So, he’s been injury-plagued throughout, but he has a very good repertoire, with a wide array of strikeout pitches. Last season with the Chicago Cubs, he allowed just 122 hits in 141 innings while striking out 171 batters.
He should have plenty of suitors this offseason, given his age and ability. The Red Sox just signed knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to a two-year deal, making him their fifth starter once again.
Daisuke Matsuzaka is also returning to the rotation, and the team has also expressed interest in Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay , who is on the trade market.
But, despite having five starters and interest in a sixth, they should pull out of the Halladay Sweepstakes and focus on an inexpensive option.
Because of Harden’s injury history, teams will be hesitant to give him a multi-year deal. So, why don’t the Red Sox sign him to a one-year, $8 million contract? He could make 30 starts, something he has done only once, win 15-18 games, and make an already stacked rotation dominating.
Worst case, he makes 15 starts, wins seven-to-nine games, and spends the majority of the year on the shelf. Given Harden’s potential for greatness, if Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein wants to improve, he’ll take the gamble.
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