I was reading an article the other day where a baseball commentator said the qualities needed to make the playoffs aren’t the qualities needed to succeed in the playoffs
They said that deep starting pitching, production up and down the lineup, good middle relief and steady defense isn't nearly as important as having two dominant starters and a closer.
Intrigued to know just how true this was, I began researching the topic, starting with the 2008 American League.
Let’s take a look at the four AL playoff teams and the qualities they showed to get to the postseason.
Anecdotally, we speak about the teams being among the league’s elite. Statistically, we know they are the squads with the best win-loss record.
We know Carlos Quentin, Jermaine Dye, and Jim Thome hit more than 100 home runs between them for the White Sox, and that Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, and Jason Bartlett each stole more than 20 bags for the Rays.
But looking deeper, all four teams—Tampa Bay Rays, LA Angels, Boston Red Sox, and Chicago White Sox—played great defense, pitched fantastically, and produced throughout their lineup.
Starting rotations
Each team had solid starting pitching from top to bottom, highlighted by the fact that all four teams were within the top six AL teams, ranked by ERA.
The Red Sox’s rotation included four double-digit game winners who combined for a 56-30 record.
Three of them—Josh Beckett, John Lester, and Daisuke Matsuzaka had more than 150 strikeouts.
Chicago’s starting rotation posted a 4.11 ERA, compared to a Major League average of 4.32.
Their staff was led by four pitches with double-digit wins, including a 17-game winner in Gavin Floyd.
Going one better, Tampa Bay’s rotation saw all five starting pitchers record at least 11 wins, with three of them posting an ERA below 3.75.
James Shields, Andy Sonnanstein, and Matt Garza also threw five complete game shutouts which ranked joint first in the AL in 2008.
Of the eight pitchers who threw a pair of shutouts in the 08 season; two were from the Rays.
Similarly, the Angels’ staff was manned by five pitchers who each won 11 games or more, combining for 70 of the team’s league-leading 100 victories.
Among their starting pitchers was Ervin Santana, who pitched 219 innings (fourth among AL hurlers) and struck out 214 batters (second behind AJ Burnett).
To put these starting rotations into perspective, only one other team had more than three starters with double-digit wins.
The Seattle Mariners didn’t have a single 10-game winner.
Call to the 'pen
The relief pitching of the four playoff-bound teams was also fantastic.
Only the New York Yankees’ bullpen had a better strikeout rate per nine innings of work than any one of the Rays, White Sox, Red Sox, or Angels, and all four clubs’ relievers ranked within the top six AL teams for runs allowed.
The Rays, White Sox, and Red Sox were also within the best four clubs for losses allowed in relief, and three of the four teams had bullpen ERAs much below the league average.
It comes as little surprise, perhaps, that five of the top set-up men played for one of the four teams in question.
LA’s Scott Shields (31) and Tampa Bay’s Dan Wheeler (26) had the most holds in the AL, while Boston’s Hideki Okajima, Tampa’s Chad Bradford, and the White Sox’s Octavio Dotel ranked sixth, seventh and eighth, respectively.
Shields actually recorded the most holds in the Big Leagues, getting the ball to the league’s top closer, Francisco Rodriguez.
Productive offense
Offensively, the clubs also proved they were both worthy of playing meaningful October baseball.
The Rays, Angels and Red Sox were the top three teams in the American League for stolen bases, while the White Sox led the league with 235 home runs.
Also of note was the fact that the Red Sox’s one-through-six hitters had more RBI than any other team’s top and middle orders, while the White Sox’s seven, eight, and nine batters drove in more runs than the lower third of all but one other roster.
The batters in the final three spots in the White Sox’s, Rays’, and Red Sox’s orders also all ranked inside the top five AL teams in base hits, proving that all four playoff teams have great production all the way down the lineup.
For the sake of thoroughness, Boston, Tampa Bay, and LA also placed either joint first or joint second in terms of fielding percentage. The trio of teams were all well above average, with the White Sox the exception to the rule.
October baseball
Having shown that these four ball clubs succeeded because of a deep rotation, productive batting lineup, lights-out set of middle relievers, and gold-glove defense, let’s look at how things change once the playoffs begin.
All of a sudden, excess starting pitching is meaningless. The best-of-five and best-of-seven series prompt teams to go to their studs on short days’ rest, killing the worth of a number-five starter and often limiting the opportunities for a number four.
In addition, teams’ top go-to guys out of the bullpen get used with more regularity, with managers looking to their stopper often to quash a rally even before it is a save situation or even if they had pitched to four batters the night before.
Let’s examine some hard numbers.
In Boston’s four-game ALDS set with the Angels in 2008, the Red Sox sent Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka to the hill in three of the four matches.
In response, the Angels sent John Lackey and Ervin Santana for three of the four encounters, and neither team had any use for the fourth and fifth starting pitchers they had used in the season—pitchers who had a total of 37 wins between them that season.
Tim Wakefield and Clay Bucholtz were almost afterthoughts by now, while Weaver was sent to help the bullpen.
Come playoff time though, this is not all that uncommon.
Jose Contreras and Edwin Jackson were not used in the Rays-White Sox series, while Paul Byrd was only used in relief when the Red Sox squared off with the Rays in the ALCS.
Lester and Dice-K started four of Boston’s championship series, while Scot Shields and Scott Kazmir started nine of Tampa Bay’s 15 total playoff matches.
Coming out of the bullpen, Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon worked five innings in three games in the divisional series, including back-to-back, two-inning appearances.
Putting this into perspective, Papelbon only pitched two innings twice in the entire 2008 season.
In the ALCS, Papelbon threw 5.1 more innings in four games, while Dan Wheeler pitched five innings in three games.
No longer is the middle reliever as important, much in the same way that a number-five starter is often surplus to requirements.
Finally, let’s look at the postseason batting production.
While all four AL playoff teams had decent production up and down the lineup throughout the regular season, the focus is shifted squarely to the guys in the middle of the order come October.
Almost 28 percent of the Rays’ runs during the regular season came from the seven-eight-nine spots in the batting order.
Throughout the ALDS and ALCS, the bottom of their lineup drove in just 11 of the Rays’ 64 runs (17 percent)
This is mirrored in the other playoff teams too, with just 24 of the 136 runs (17 percent) coming from the final three slots. It’s a stark contrast from the 32 percent that the Angles’ seven-through-nine guys produced in the regular season or the 33 percent from the White Sox.
Final thoughts
So it appears true that the qualities needed to just make the playoffs are not the same needed to succeed once you’re there.
Of course, extra-base hits, timely steals and good production across your lineup are useful.
But when it comes down to it, all you really need are two aces ready to go on four days’ rest, a closer prepared to get four or five outs every other day for a month, and power bats in the three or four spot to scratch across enough support for your stud.
I may take a look at the 2009 season once it concludes, but is there really any need?
CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett have been lights out, Mariano Rivera has pitched eight shutout innings and appeared in all six playoff games so far, and A-Rod has four home runs and nine RBI.
The proof is in the numbers. There may be no "I" in "The All-Star New York Yankees," but it looks like it may come down to just one or two people to bring home a championship.
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