Weeks of enthralling exposition during the MLB postseason has fans geared up for the upcoming World Series climax. The final slate will have a big bar to match in order to not disappoint.
Through two games of both Championship Series, fans have already been treated to 11 close playoff encounters decided by one run. The Kansas City Royals alone have provided four of five extra-inning affairs, giving everyone all the baseball they can handle this October. Now they're two more wins away from knocking off the Baltimore Orioles.
Will this weird postseason get even weirder? Knowing baseball, probably. Let's take a look at the World Series schedule before looking into which two squads will make their way to the Fall Classic.
ALCS: Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles (KC leads 2-0)
Mother Nature was just too excited to see these two squads in action. Some untimely precipitation in Kansas City forced MLB to push Game 3 from Monday to Tuesday.
Although the rain means James Shields and Chris Tillman can pitch Game 4 on normal rest, the lost travel day then makes it impossible for either to line up for a potential Game 7. Either way, neither No. 1 starter particularly looks like an ace at the moment.
Shields isn't quite owning up to that silly "Big Game James" nickname. The offense, however, is an entirely different story.
The same group that hit an MLB-low 95 home runs during the regular season has now crushed eight homers through six games. They're posting a playoff-high .766 OPS, well above their .690 season clip.
A great deal of their success simply stems from timing in a small sample size. But if "Everyone grows hot and cold at some point" doesn't float your boat as an explanation, Grantland's Jonah Keri examined the tangible improvements made during the postseason. They're walking at a higher rate (7.7 percent to the season's 6.3) and seeing better pitches due to their enhanced plate discipline.
While more walks lead to a better on-base percentage, free passes aren’t the only benefit of a patient approach. Seeing more pitches means getting better pitches to hit, and here, too, the Royals are performing much better in the postseason than they did during the regular season. Pre-playoffs, K.C. ranked 27th in pitches seen per plate appearance, at 3.74. During the playoffs, the Royals have upped that mark to 3.90. While that might not seem like a huge jump, 3.90 would’ve ranked fourth in the majors during the regular season.
Oddly enough, they also lead all teams with 51 strikeouts, this trend reversed in the wrong direction after sporting the season's lowest strikeout percentage (16.3 percent). Strikeouts are not ideal, but they're also not the end of the world when it leads to better pitch selection and more damage when contact is made.
Whether they've realized it or not, the Royals have slipped away from the small-ball characteristics that defined them heading into this series against the Orioles, their polar opposites during the regular season.
Baltimore's distinct power advantage that dominated the pre-series narrative has not materialized. Adam Jones hit the team's lone homer through the opening two games at Camden Yards, but the Royals belted four long balls.
All that could certainly change to the expected direction on a whim, but adding power to their upscale defense and relief pitching makes the Royals a dangerous force that shouldn't squander a 2-0 advantage.
Prediction: Royals in 5
NLCS: San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Tied 1-1)
Just like their Missouri companions, the St. Louis Cardinals went from tallying an NL-low 105 home runs during the season to sparking a deep-ball barrage when it mattered most. They've towered 11 already in six games, giving them a .438 slugging percentage in postseason play.
The last one came on Sunday night, when Kolten Wong saved the day with a walk-off home run to avoid a 2-0 deficit against the San Francisco Giants.
So why won't they get the same praise as the Royals? They're also hitting .227 with a .289 on-base percentage and 6.5 percent walk rate. When they're not sending balls over the fences, they're not getting anything done.
Also, they might have lost one of their biggest stars in Yadier Molina, who left Game 2 with an oblique strain. Despite a worrying early prognosis, Molina has not yet been ruled out for the rest of this series. Per MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch:
Should he not make Game 3's start on Thursday, a very feasible scenario, someone other than Molina will have to don the catcher's mask for the first time in a postseason game since 2004. MLB.com's Andrew Simon noted that the team's current manager was the last person to make a postseason start at catcher before Molina.
Given his .386 slugging percentage, losing Molina's bat is not an insurmountable loss. It's his presence behind the plate, however, that the Cardinals would dearly miss. Baseball-Reference.com notes the marked spike in production his pitchers enjoy with the veteran and excellent pitch-framer behind the plate.
Matt Carpenter, who has hit four postseason homers after amassing eight during the season, discussed Molina's importance to the team.
"You can't say enough about what he does for our team," Carpenter said, per ESPN.com. "The way he handles our pitching staff and the leader that he is ... It's disappointing not having him out there. It's not ideal."
The Giants are dealing with a 1.65 playoff ERA through 71 innings, but the offense is slugging .298 with two home runs. Bad indeed, but this is not a bad offense. All eight starting position players have an OPS+ above 100, which means they're all above-average hitters.
If their fortune on fly balls even out, the Giants should continue their pattern of making the World Series every other year.
Prediction: Giants in 6
Note: Advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com.
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