If pitching truly wins championships, congratulations to the New York Mets on their 2015 World Series title.
The Mets finished the season No. 4 in team ERA (3.45), an edge that carried over into October. Through nine postseason bouts, they sport a 2.81 ERA, accumulating 91 strikeouts through 80 innings.
Despite their bullpen's best efforts, the Royals have allowed 4.3 runs per playoff game against tough offenses. A flimsy starting staff remains their biggest flaw, entering the World Series with a 5.56 postseason ERA and 4.75 walks per nine innings.
Of course, anything can happen in a best-of-seven series. A Mets rotation with two rookies and two former Tommy John surgery recipients could finally succumb to fatigue while the Royals' erratic starters keep cleaning up their messes with runners in scoring position. Or maybe the National League champions jump out to early leads before the American League representatives can fully utilize their prolific bullpen.
Keep an eye on these hurlers during the Fall Classic.
Mets
Noah Syndergaard, SP
Per MLB.com's Anthony DiComo, Mets manager Terry Collins confirmed his World Series rotation:
This order sets up Noah Syndergaard to start at Citi Field, where the 23-year-old rookie has notched a 2.41 ERA through 13 starts. This is hardly a demotion for Thor, as the hard-throwing newcomer would be available to pitch a potential Game 7.
Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey receive more attention atop New York's stellar rotation, but Syndergaard may prove the best of the trio down the road. After concluding the season with a 3.24 ERA and 9.96 strikeouts per nine innings, he has amassed 20 punchouts through 13 postseason innings, frequently reaching 100 on the radar gun.
As he told Newsday's Marc Carig during their pennant celebration, this group is going to be a force for a while:
The pure power hurler will clash against an aggressive offense that rarely strikes out. Although the Royals have succeeded against high heat, there's a huge difference between 95 and 100 miles per hour.
Tyler Clippard, RP
There's a security breach in New York's stellar pitching staff. If the Royals can force the starters out before bridging to closer Jeurys Familia, Mets fans everywhere will leave the series with damaged fingernails.
Tyler Clippard is a disaster waiting to happen. According to FanGraphs, a 5.30 expected fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 60.6 fly-ball percentage muddy a 2.92 ERA. Since Sept. 1, he has relinquished 13 runs, including five homers, through 18.1 frames.
For New York's sake, let's hope he got the regression out of his system during Game 4 of the National League Championship Series. Kris Bryant clobbered a hanging changeup in the eighth inning, but the two-run homer merely lessened the lead to five. As Collins' preferred setup man to Familia, Clippard usually pitches in more high-leverage situations.
The Mets don't have a conventional southpaw specialist, but the right-handed Clippard would help against left-handed hitters. Lefties hold a career .179/.265/.307 slash line against the 30-year-old reliever. Those splits could come in handy against Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon.
Royals
Johnny Cueto, SP
In two drastically different starts, Johnny Cueto went from allowing two hits in eight innings to eight runs through two innings. The great outing led Kansas City past the Houston Astros, but the debacle cost the team an 11-8 shootout against Toronto.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, the letdown performance set a dubious record:
When the Royals acquired Cueto from the Cincinnati Reds in July, they hoped to gain an ace to lead their October rotation. He sunk any such confidence before the season ended, registering a 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for his new organization.
Yost has not set his World Series rotation, but he may prefer Yordano Ventura and/or Edinson Volquez to open the series. Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star wondered if Cueto's catastrophe at Rogers Centre will cause the Royals to use him at home in Game 1 or Game 2:
Citi Field is not the same treacherous hitters' park, but the Mets are no cupcake matchup. If the good, or at least decent, Cueto doesn't show up, the Royals are in trouble.
Kelvin Herrera, RP
Wade Davis' promotion to closer has derailed his overall worth. If Greg Holland were still around, manager Ned Yost would have certainly used his current stopper more than twice in the American League Championship Series. He also wouldn't have waited for Ryan Madson to blow a 3-1 lead before reluctantly using Davis (gasps) outside of the ninth inning in Game 6.
Unless Yost alters his bullpen usage, Kelvin Herrera becomes the club's most vital reliever. Free from the foolish save shackles, the middle reliever has appeared in eight of Kansas City's 11 playoff bouts. He has shined through them all, allowing seven baserunners with 16 strikeouts through 8.2 innings.
As noted by Beyond the Box Score, he's the only pitcher generating a higher whiff rate than New York's power starters this postseason:
His playoff success is a huge relief for the Royals, as he limped out of the season with 10 runs relinquished over his last 14.1 innings. For the second straight year, he's the guy Yost comfortably turns to in high-leverage spots. Given Kansas City's tumultuous rotation, Herrera and the bullpen have no margin for error.
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