Every accolade bestowed upon the Kansas City Royals during the World Series' off day banished during Game 3, when an uncharacteristically ugly game let the New York Mets diminish the deficit to 2-1.
Kansas City officially didn't commit any errors, but pitchers Yordano Ventura and Franklin Morales each committed a crucial defensive miscue. Meanwhile, Noah Syndergaard recovered from a rough start to contain the contact-heavy offense, recording six strikeouts in a 9-3 victory.
For the second straight evening, New York will send a rookie starter to the mound in Citi Field. Kansas City, on the other hand, will turn to a grizzled veteran 12 years his adversary's elder. After overflowing the series opener with drama, both sides have traded lopsided victories. These two pennant winners, however, are too evenly matched to anticipate another blowout.
When: Saturday, October 31, at 8:07 p.m. ET
Where: Citi Field; Queens, New York
TV: Fox
Live Stream: Fox Sports Go
Probable Pitchers: Chris Young (Royals) vs. Steven Matz (Mets)
Game 4 Preview
Although it hasn't materialized on the diamond, the Mets seemingly hold one distinctive advantage over the Royals. While the American League champions were simply hoping to deliver the game intact to their prolific bullpen, the Mets needed to ride their starting pitching to victory.
Steven Matz is no pushover, but the rookie doesn't give them a demonstrative edge. Manager Terry Collins has wisely kept him on a short leash this postseason, working him a combined 9.2 frames through two starts. The pressure becomes even greater to quickly assemble an early lead.
With Matt Harvey already 28 innings over the original 180 limit, the Mets cannot fairly employ the 26-year-old on short rest. They'll instead rely on the 24-year-old lefty, who has issued a 2.58 ERA through eight career MLB starts.
A lifelong Mets fan who was nine when the Mets last made the World Series is now tasked with evening the best-of-seven slate. Per the team's Twitter page, he commented on making the biggest start of his life four months after his big league debut:
Against Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Syndergaard, the Royals struck out 10 times. Before hoping for an uptick, they actually fanned fewer times against lefties, recording an MLB-low 15.1 strikeout percentage off southpaws. They have also collected 10 hits off New York's bullpen this series, which will have Collins feeling uneasy with the game in their hands.
Chris Young also isn't expected to go the distance. The 36-year-old righty didn't last five innings in either playoff start, but he did exactly what Kansas City needed. He limited the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays to three scores through 8.2 innings, giving Kansas City's relief corps a chance to win.
The advanced metrics say Young should get shelled. Throwing a mid-80s fastball, he produced a lowly 16.6 strikeout percentage along with an 8.6 walk percentage. He registered more hard-hit balls (33.4 percent) than grounders (25.5 percent), leading to a 4.52 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 5.15 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).
He also posted a 3.06 ERA. Did he benefit from luck, or does he have skills enabling him to overcome expected regression? Perhaps both. A .209 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) helped his cause, but his career .247 BABIP resides well below the average hurler. A 14.8 infield-fly percentage, the easiest out among batted balls, produces a chunk of weak offense.
This is important to note against the Mets. As Ben Lindbergh explained in Grantland's World Series preview, a matchup of a fly-ball pitcher and fly-ball hitter favors the pitcher, leading to more pop-ups rather than home runs. He predicted this trend especially helping Young:
The Royals have a fly ball staff: Only the Angels and Rays had higher fly ball rates this season. Mets batters, meanwhile, recorded the fifth-highest fly ball rate (and the third-highest among position players), a trait that only intensified with Cespedes in the fold. In theory, these batted-ball tendencies should sap some of the Mets’ power, forcing them to swing under balls that they usually center. The effect should be especially strong against über-fly-baller Chris Young, who’s had success in both of the big parks in this series.
Oddly enough, Young has registered 15 punchouts through 11.2 scoreless frames. Used in relief duty during Game 1's 14-inning grind, he struck out four Mets through three hitless frames. The veteran earned the win, but he acknowledged the stat's uselessness to MLB.com's Jeffrey Flanagan:
Baseball Savant's Daren Willman provided a more telling stat of Young's enhanced velocity in Game 1:
He can't go full throttle back in a starting role, but he realistically won't throw more than five frames on three days' rest. A fresh Kris Medlen, who surprisingly pitched on Friday, should still be Kansas City's first option in a long-relief role. In 14.1 innings out of the bullpen, the 30-year-old limited opponents to a .553 OPS.
In a game that will boil down to the late innings, look for the Royals bullpen (not Franklin Morales), speed and defense to pull off a narrow victory.
Prediction: Royals 5, Mets 4
All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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