Fantasy

In the early going, Joey Votto has an ADP of 26.39, going late in the second round or early in the third round of fantasy drafts.  That’s before fellow first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, and Justin Morneau.  That’s before any starting pitcher outside of Tim Lincecum.  That’s before Justin Upton.  The question is, should he be targeted that early in drafts?

You can’t hit home runs without hitting flyballs, right?  Let’s take a look at which 10 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances in both 2008 and 2009 enjoyed the biggest increase in flyball rate and if they have an opportunity to deliver a significant number of home runs in 2010:

I’ve already given my early projections on Alcides Escobar (click here to view) and Everth Cabrera (click here to view), so let’s finish off the trifecta of young shortstops by looking at Elvis Andrus.

Of the three, Andrus was the most impressive in 2009, mostly as a 20-year old (he turned 21 in late August), posting the following line:

It seems like fantasy owners are always looking for the next stud young pitcher on the precipice of making an impact. 

That involves more than just putting up a good ERA and the possibility of getting wins.  The potential to strikeout batters, and at an impressive rate, is just as important.

Of the young pitchers who could make the leap to the majors in 2010, Christian Friedrich has the potential to make an impact across the board.  Just look at the numbers the 2008 first round draft pick (25th overall) posted last season at two levels of Single-A:

After a few busy days of winter meetings in the MLB, let’s take a look at the fantasy implications of some of the bigger moves:

Here is an early look at my Top 10 Fantasy baseball picks for the 2010 season as of right now, in a 5x5 rotisserie league format.

No. 1 Albert Pujols (1B-Cardinals)

Is there any debate here?  Albert does it all for you.  He even stole 16 bases last year.  I wouldn't expect him to do that again necessarily, but 10 steals is reasonable to expect.  He will be a triple crown threat next year, and if you are lucky enough to get the No. 1 pick, take him and be thankfully that you have him on your team.

2009 Stats: .327 AVG, 47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB, 124 R

The Chicago White Sox have never been an organization to shy away from the unorthodox.  The make trades that other teams may never even consider, and they are not afraid to give youngsters an opportunity, which sets the stage for Daniel Hudson.

Drafted in the fifth round in 2008, Hudson pitched at four different minor league levels in 2009 (and a cup of coffee in the Majors), impressing every step of the way, posting a cumulative Minor League line of:

14 Wins
147.1 Innings
2.32 ERA
0.94 WHIP
166 Strikeouts (10.16 K/9)
34 Walks (2.08 BB/9)
.287 BABIP

The Braves’ signing of Billy Wagner appears to signal a change at the back end of the Atlanta bullpen.  While it is still possible that Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez is brought back to the mix (though even more unlikely with the addition of Takashi Saito), does anyone believe they would have guaranteed Wagner $7 million if he was not going to be the closer?

Wagner, who returned from Tommy John surgery in 2009, was impressive as a setup man for the Mets and Red Sox (1.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 26 K in 15.2 IP) and instantly becomes a solid option in all formats. 

It was just two seasons ago that B.J. Upton posted a 24 HR, 22 SB season sending fantasy owners into a frenzy, thinking the next great outfielder had emerged.

Since then, while the speed has proven to be real (86 SB the past two seasons), the power is nowhere to be found with just 20 home runs total.  Is there any hope that he can get reasonably close to his 2007 campaign?

First, let’s take a look at the numbers he did post in 2009: