Fantasy Baseball

Are you an owner in a two-catcher format who likes to wait until the last few rounds to fill out one or two of your catching spots?  While it’s not a strategy that I’m in favor of (which we’ll discuss soon), here are two players that are worth eyeing who are going in Round 18 or later of 12-team formats:

Jesus Flores - Washington Nationals

While there is still volatility in all of the rankings, I think the closer rankings are the ones with the most potential to change.  Where does Billy Wagner fit in now that he’s going to be a closer?  Should Carlos Marmol, Bobby Jenks, or Trevor Hoffman be considered a top option?  Where do we value 2009 breakouts David Aardsma and Ryan Franklin?

These are all questions that we’ll try to answer as we take a look at how my rankings currently stand (remember, I’m still fine tuning my projections so keep in mind that these are fluid):

Overvalued picks

Joey Votto (Round Two): Despite missing 31 games last season Votto hit .322 with 25 homers and 84 rbi. Votto has the potential for a .320-30-100 season but so does Justin Morneau or Kevin Youkilis who each went in Round Four. Kendry Morales went in went in Round Five and Billy Butler in Round Eight shows one the depth at this position.

The offseason is always filled with numerous trades and free agent signings.

But with each deal that's made, players' fantasy stocks increase, some decrease, and others stay the same with their new team.

This offseason was no different.

In fact, more major moves happened this year than in recent years.

We all know about Seattle's signing of Chone Figgins. The three-team deal involving Curtis Granderson and of course the four-team megadeal that had Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee changing addresses.

In the early going, Joey Votto has an ADP of 26.39, going late in the second round or early in the third round of fantasy drafts.  That’s before fellow first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, and Justin Morneau.  That’s before any starting pitcher outside of Tim Lincecum.  That’s before Justin Upton.  The question is, should he be targeted that early in drafts?

Is it weird that I continue to root for my fantasy players even after their tenures on my team have ended?

Take Matt Holliday. After limping to an 0-3 start in my most important Head-to-Head league in 2007, I swung a deal for a young slugger who I admittedly didn’t know much about. I went 13-1 after the trade. Coincidence?

It was a good week last week for Placido Polanco.

He signed a three-year, $18 million contract, he joined one of the best teams in baseball in the Philadelphia Phillies, and now that he is part of a great lineup, his offensive numbers should get a boost.

While all that is great for Polanco, it’s the last item that fantasy owners care about the most. With Polanco in a much better lineup, we should see increased fantasy production from him in 2010.

Young shortstops are getting a lot of focus these days, but the names generally mentioned are Alcides Escobar and Elvis Andrus.  There’s a third speedster who belongs to be included in that group, the Padres’ Everth Cabrera.

Before we get into too much detail, let’s take a look at his line from last season:

377 At Bats
.255 Batting Average (96 Hits)
2 Home Runs
31 RBI
59 Runs
25 Stolen Bases
.342 On Base Percentage
.361 Slugging Percentage
.328 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Geovany Soto entered the 2008 season as a player with a ton of upside potential, having made his presence felt in a 2007 cup of coffee (.389, 3 HR in 54 AB).  Having lived up to his potential, owners entered 2009 thinking that he was easily a top five catcher in all formats, taking him early in drafts to ensure they got production out of a position that generally doesn’t offer much.

Unfortunately, saying that he fell flat would be an understatement.  His season was a disaster, with inability and injury holding him to a line of:

Professionals in the game of baseball, managers perhaps more than players, will hate to admit this. But it was fantasy baseball that shaped a lot of how we now think about the actual sport. And while few, if any teams are as yet run by amateurs, it must be conceded that the amateurs to the game revolutionized the way the game is currently run.